Saturday, 17 April 2010

Sunday polls - UPDATED

After the confusion of the ComRes poll which put the Lib Dems on 35% (it turned out to be just a poll of those who watched the debate), and the YouGov daily poll which put the Lib Dems above Labour, we now get the first news of the Sunday polls.

And they confirm the definite swing towards Nick, Vince and the Lib Dems.

ComRes for S Mirror/Independent on Sunday
Con 31 (-4),
Lab 27 (-2),
LD 29 (+8)
Oth 13 (-2)

and

Sunday Telegraph/ICM
Con 34 (-3),
Lab 29 (-2),
LD 27 (+7)

The key here is that the majority of the polling was done before Thursday's debate.

Two key trends jump straight out at me:

First, that the Lib Dems at at or above the level of Labour. So Gordon Brown will be seriously worried. Yet, as others have pointed out, these figures would still tend to leave Labour as the largest single party in the House of Commons with the Lib Dems improving to just over 100 seats. It just goes to show how unfair the voting system is and would tend to make electoral reform a key demand for any talks with other parties.

Second, the Lib Dems are taking more votes from the Tories than they are from Labour. So David Cameron will also be seriously worried. Maybe this is because, in fact, voters are not too familiar with the Tories either. Prior to the election, the Tories got all the attention and so floating voters who dislike Labour tended to favour them. Now Nick and the Lib Dems are getting the attention, those same floating voters are siding our way.

Of course, these are just a few polls and show what people are thinking now, not how they will eventually vote. But it's a great time to be a Lib Dem.

UPDATE:

Two more polls out with the Lib Dems in the lead:

The People
LibDems on 33% (Con 27, Lab 23)

The Mail on Sunday
LibDems 32% (Con 31, Lab 28).

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